Srinagar, Mar 4: Jammu and Kashmir has recorded its seventh straight winter rainfall deficit, a trend experts describe as a climate-driven shift in the regionís seasonal precipitation patterns.
According to the Meteorological Department, the December 2025 to February 2026 season ended 65 percent below normal, with 100.6 mm of precipitation recorded against a seasonal average of 284.9 mm.
ìThis is the seventh consecutive winter that has ended in deficit,î said Mukhtar Ahmad, Director of the Meteorological Centre Srinagar. ìSuch persistence over seven years is highly unusual and indicates a clear shift in winter precipitation behaviour, consistent with broader climate change signals.î
In Kashmir, winter begins in December.
The 40-day stretch from December 21 to January 29 is considered the harshest phase, when temperatures plunge and snowfall is typically at its peak.
The period is locally known as Chilai Kalan, or ìthe large cold,î followed by the milder Chilai Khurd or small cold and a 10-day transition called Chilai Bacha or baby cold.
Since 2019-20, each winter has ended below normal: 20 percent in 2019-20, 37 percent in 2020-21, 8 percent in 2021-22, 34 percent in 2022-23, 54 percent in 2023-24, 45 percent in 2024-25 and 65 percent in 2025-26.
ìThe striking feature is the uninterrupted sequence,î Ahmad said. ìWe have not recorded a single normal or surplus winter in this period.î
He said the decline is largely tied to the weakening and shifting track of Western Disturbances, the systems responsible for most winter rain and snow.
ìIn recent years, fewer Western Disturbances have reached the region, and those that do are weaker and shorter in duration,î Ahmad said. ìClimate change is influencing large-scale atmospheric circulation, which in turn affects these systems.î
The latest season mirrored that broader pattern.
December recorded a 78 percent deficit, January was 23 percent below normal and February saw an 89 percent shortfall, sharply reducing snowfall during peak winter weeks.
ìFebruaryís collapse ensured the season would rank among the driest in recent record,î said Faizan Keng, an independent weather forecaster. ìThe snow deficit during the core winter phase is particularly concerning.î
Earlier winters showed greater variability, including surpluses of 29 percent in 2016-17 and 36 percent in 2018-19.
ìThat contrast makes the post-2019 drying trend very clear,î Keng said. ìWe are witnessing a sustained change.î
Riyaz Ahmad Mir, a hydrologist at the National Institute of Hydrology in Jammu, said the repeated shortfalls align with warming trends across the western Himalayas.
ìThe decline in winter precipitation is linked to a combination of atmospheric changes and regional climate processes,î Mir said. ìWarmer winters reduce snowfall efficiency and alter moisture transport pathways.î
He cautioned that the consequences extend beyond seasonal statistics.
ìWhen such conditions persist, the hydrological system loses its recovery window,î Mir said. ìReduced snow and rainfall limit recharge of groundwater and springs, contribute to early summer streamflow decline, increase glacier stress and gradually shift the region from temporary drought toward long-term water scarcity.î
Climatologist Sonam Lotus said the snowfall deficit is visible across the western Himalayan belt, including J&K, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand.
ìFrom November to February, the western Himalayas have experienced significant snowfall deficits for several years,î Lotus said. ìThis February was the driest and warmest in the last 47 years. It is a manifestation of climate change and fewer and weaker western disturbances. However, citing any particular process is difficult because atmospheric processes are very complex.î
Experts said the seven-year stretch depicts growing vulnerability in a region where snow accumulation traditionally sustains rivers, agriculture and drinking water supplies through spring and summer.
ìSeven consecutive deficient winters are not normal,î Ahmad said. ìThey reflect a changing climate reality that the region must prepare for.î
