Srinagar, Mar 26: Jammu and Kashmir has witnessed increased precipitation in March, but the Union Territory continues to face a significant rainfall deficit, with officials warning that the overall shortfall remains far from being bridged.
According to the Meteorological Department, J&K is currently recording a 42 per cent precipitation deficit for March, despite recent wet spells and another active weather system expected to affect the region from March 26.
“A feeble western disturbance will affect Jammu and Kashmir from March 26, bringing generally cloudy weather, light rain in the plains and light snowfall over higher reaches,” said Director Meteorology, Mukhtar Ahmad. “Thunder and gusty winds are also likely at many places.”
He said a more active phase is likely between the night of March 28 and March 30, with widespread light to moderate rain in the plains and snowfall over upper elevations. Gusty winds with speeds of 40–50 kmph may continue till the forenoon of March 31.
Weather conditions on March 31 are expected to remain generally cloudy with scattered light rain or snow, while partly to generally cloudy skies are forecast from April 1 to 4.
Despite the forecast of further precipitation, officials said the deficit is unlikely to be fully offset.
“March has seen some precipitation and more is expected, but this is unlikely to compensate for the 42 per cent shortfall,” Ahmad said. “Even with a major wet spell, the deficit may reduce but is highly unlikely to reach normal levels.”
Data shows that Jammu and Kashmir has received 70.2 mm of rainfall so far this month against a normal of 128.6 mm, placing it in the “deficit” category.
The shortfall follows an exceptionally dry winter. Between November and February, the region recorded just 106.7 mm of precipitation against a normal of 320.1 mm—a 67 per cent deficit classified as “large deficient.”
Both Kashmir and Jammu divisions have recorded steep declines, with deficits of 67 per cent and 66 per cent, respectively. February was particularly dry, registering nearly 89 per cent below normal precipitation.
Several districts have reported acute shortages even in March, including Kulgam (-86 per cent), Shopian (-82 per cent), Budgam (-70 per cent), Udhampur (-61 per cent) and Anantnag (-62 per cent). In contrast, Ganderbal and Samba have recorded above-normal rainfall.
Neighbouring Ladakh also reported a 51 per cent precipitation deficit during the winter season, though it received above-normal rainfall in March along with moderate snowfall in higher reaches.
Officials said the recent precipitation has helped break a prolonged dry spell, aiding glacier replenishment, improving water levels and bringing temperatures closer to seasonal norms after an unusually warm February and early March.
“This has also brought some relief to farmers as agricultural activities resume,” Ahmad said.
However, he cautioned that the cumulative deficit remains substantial.
“The overall shortfall from November to March is over 70 per cent and falls in the ‘large deficient’ category,” he said. “It is premature to make a forecast for April, but we hope it brings adequate precipitation.”
