Srinagar, Oct 13: The Election Commission of India (ECI) on Monday announced that by-polls for two vacant Assembly constituencies in Jammu and Kashmir – 27-Budgam and 77-Nagrota – would be held on November 11.
The two seats had fallen vacant after Chief Minister Omar Abdullah vacated the Budgam seat and held onto his family bastion, Ganderbal seat, and the demise of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) MLA from Nagrota, Devender Singh Rana.
The announcements were made through separate notifications published in the Jammu and Kashmir Official Gazette.
According to the notifications, issued under Sections 30, 56, and 150 of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, both vacancies are to be filled through by-elections, which must be completed before November 16, 2025.
Candidates can file their nominations until October 20, with scrutiny scheduled for October 22 and the last date for withdrawal of candidature on October 24.
Polling, if necessary, would be held on November 11, with hours fixed from 7 am to 6 pm.
The process would conclude by November 16.
The Budgam assembly seat became vacant after Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, who had won both Budgam and Ganderbal in the October 2024 assembly elections, decided to retain Ganderbal.
Abdullah defeated PDP’s Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi by over 18,000 votes in Budgam, while securing Ganderbal, a family stronghold, with a margin of 10,574 votes.
Following his oath as Chief Minister, Abdullah formally resigned from Budgam on October 20, 2024, as announced in the Legislative Assembly by Pro-tem Speaker Mubarak Gul.
Despite the resignation, the NC continues to hold a clear majority in the assembly with support from Congress, independents, and smaller parties.
Political analysts say the Budgam by-poll will serve as a key measure of public sentiment towards the NC government under Omar Abdullah, particularly on issues like special status, statehood, and job creation amid administrative constraints under the Lieutenant Governor’s oversight.
The Nagrota seat fell vacant following the death of BJP MLA Devender Singh Rana on October 31, 2024. Rana, aged 59, passed away after a prolonged illness while undergoing treatment at a private hospital.
A businessman-turned-politician, Rana had begun his career with the NC before joining the BJP in 2021.
He retained Nagrota in the 2024 elections with a record margin of 30,472 votes against NC’s Joginder Singh.
Rana was widely respected across political lines in the Jammu region and played a crucial role in both the NC and BJP political strategies over the years.
His death triggered the by-elections, which are expected to witness a keen contest between BJP and NC candidates.
Observers say the Budgam by-election is likely to gauge public reaction to the first-year performance of the NC-led government.
The Nagrota by-poll is seen as a test of the BJP’s consolidation in Jammu and the ability of regional parties to maintain their influence.
Meanwhile, the discordant notes of the alliance partners – NC and Congress – during the process of filing Rajya Sabha nominations, which completed on Monday, would reverberate and cast their shadow on their negotiations for assembly by-polls.
Despite the NC’s clear snub for not leaving a “safe seat” for the partner Congress, if the latter is exercising restraint in sharing its “feeling of being slighted”, the reason is nothing but “by-pollnomics.”
The Congress is still hopeful of entering into a “seat-arrangement” with the NC to avoid “yet again a friendly contest in Nagrota,” which, in all likelihood, will spell an electoral doom for it against the BJP.
However, given the tone and tenor of NC, the chances of it leaving space open for Congress in Nagrota do not seem bright.
Since the last date for filing nomination of assembly by-polls is October 20, the smokescreen will dissipate vis-à-vis Congress-NC poll alliance prospects, ahead of RS polling.
If NC continues to be inflexible, the tremors (of its fallout with Congress) may be experienced in the RS polls as well on October 24, 2025, the day of polling.
In the case of the Budgam assembly segment, even the NC is not likely to have a cakewalk during the by-poll.
The NC’s sweet-and-sour relationship with its own very vocal MP Aga Syed Ruhullah will be the major obstruction in its smooth sailing, like it had during the 2024 assembly elections.
There will be other factors as well.
Unlike Rajya Sabha polls, no numerical strength but people’s strength will tilt the balance and decide the ultimate winner.
Moreover, assembly by-elections will be an open arena for all political parties to fight and take their electoral chance.
Ditto will be the situation for the BJP also in the Nagrota assembly segment, which was won by Devender Singh Rana for it in the 2024 assembly polls with a historic mandate.
It will not be very easy for the party to repeat the same performance if it is not able to put its house in order there.
Much will depend on its choice of candidate for the assembly segment.
The party, which does not have higher stakes in Budgam, has already prepared its panel of probable candidates for Nagrota, comprising Rana’s daughter Devyani Rana and BJP’s sitting MP Jugal Kishore’s sibling, Nand Kishore Sharma.
