Srinagar, Mar 7: The water level in the Jhelum River has dropped below the zero-gauge mark in the first week of March, an unusual development that officials and experts say follows a dry winter and could pose challenges for Kashmir’s upcoming farming season.
According to Flood Control Department data, the Jhelum was flowing at minus 0.86 feet at Sangam in south Kashmir at 9 am all through the week, indicating discharge below the zero-gauge level-a rare occurrence for this time of year.
Water levels have also declined in several major tributaries of the Jhelum across south and north Kashmir, including the Vishaw, Lidder, Brengi, Sandran, Veth Vethastu, Romshi Nallah, Tongri Nallah, Aaripal Nallah, Rambiara and Ferozepora Nallah.
The low river level comes as temperatures across Kashmir remain far above normal, with maximum temperatures this week ranging from 10.8 to 13.7 degrees Celsius above seasonal averages.
On Wednesday, Srinagar recorded 24.7 degrees Celsius, about 11.7 degrees above normal, while Gulmarg ski resort recorded 17.2 degrees Celsius, roughly 13.7 degrees above average – temperatures usually seen much later in spring.
Several other stations also recorded large departures from normal. Qazigund, the gateway of Kashmir, reached 25 degrees Celsius, about 12.6 degrees above normal, while Pahalgam recorded 22.7 degrees Celsius, about 12.7 degrees above average.
Kupwara and Kokernag recorded 23.8 and 23.9 degrees Celsius, more than 12 degrees above normal.
Despite the warmth, the Jhelum has not seen the seasonal rise normally linked to early snowmelt.
Kashmir witnessed its seventh consecutive rainfall-deficient winter, with precipitation about 65 percent below normal.
Between December and February, the region received 100.6 millimetres of rain and snow, compared with the normal 284.9 millimetres.
Hydrologist Riyaz Ahmad Mir of the National Institute of Hydrology said the weak river flow is due to the lack of snow accumulation in the mountains that feed the Valley’s rivers.
“I think the water level in the Jhelum River is low mainly because there is very little snow in the mountains to melt, even though February was relatively warm,” Mir said. “Normally warmer temperatures during this time melt snow in the Pir Panjal and Greater Himalayan ranges and increase river flow, but this winter had a large snowfall deficit.”
He said most of the snow at lower elevations has already melted, while the remaining snow cover at higher altitudes is thin and patchy, limiting sustained meltwater discharge.
Meteorological Department Director Mukhtar Ahmad said the lack of precipitation across the region had contributed to the weak river flow.
“If you see the nearby peaks and mountains, the spatial snow coverage is almost minimal,” Ahmad said. “Considering the deficit precipitation this winter, nearly 66 percent for the Kashmir division and about 50 percent for the Jammu division, the water level is low.”
He said the river could see a temporary rise as the season progresses.
“In coming days, the water level may increase temporarily not only from wet spells but also due to melting of snow in extreme higher reaches as the season progresses,” Ahmad said.
Independent weather forecaster Faizan Arif, who runs Kashmir Weather, said the river did see a brief rise during a warm spell in February, but the increase lasted only a short time.
“During the early phase of the February warmth, the water level in Jhelum rose slightly by a couple of feet,” Arif said. “But the increase was limited and mainly due to melting of the small amount of snow in nearby foothill areas rather than from the higher mountains.”
The river later dropped again because snow accumulation across the mountains was very low, leaving little snowpack to sustain meltwater flow, he said.
The Jhelum, often described as the lifeline of Kashmir, supports agriculture, horticulture, and irrigation networks across Kashmir, besides feeding numerous canals and streams that sustain farming communities.
The low flows are drawing attention because the Jhelum and its tributaries supply irrigation water across much of Kashmir, where paddy cultivation depends on snowmelt-fed rivers and canals.
Farmers say water availability during April and May, when paddy nurseries are prepared, is critical.
“We depend on canals fed by the Jhelum and streams from the mountains,” said Gulzar Ahmad, a farmer from Khudwani in south Kashmir’s Kulgam district. “If the water remains low, nursery sowing will be delayed.”
Agriculture experts say irrigation could be affected if precipitation does not improve in the coming weeks.
In response to the dry spell, Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology, Kashmir (SKUAST-K), issued an advisory urging farmers to conserve soil moisture and protect crops from heat stress.
The university advised applying organic mulch like paddy straw or grass around fruit trees to retain moisture, avoiding fertilizer use in orchards without irrigation, and limiting urea application in field crops unless adequate soil moisture is available. Vegetable growers were advised to provide light irrigation during cooler hours and protect nurseries with shade nets or straw coverings.
Meanwhile, the Meteorological Department forecast a fresh Western Disturbance would affect J&K from March 9 to March 12, bringing heavy to very heavy rainfall in the plains and light to moderate snowfall in the higher reaches.
Officials say the wet spell could replenish rivers and streams, improve groundwater recharge and restore soil moisture, providing relief for agriculture and horticulture across the region.
Experts say the precipitation could also partly improve flows in the Jhelum and its tributaries, easing concerns ahead of the paddy nursery season.
