Washington, Sep 04: Confronted by an intransigent Iranian government that has refused to back down in the face of a massive military campaign, President Donald Trump appears to have settled on a dual-pronged approach that combines economic pressure with the potential of a devastating escalation in force.

Having launched “Operation Economic Outcast” just last week to try to isolate Iran from its remaining global trade partners, the Trump administration also resumed strikes in recent days, prompting Iranian retaliation that has renewed concerns of an all-out regional war.

However, the combination of already intense sanctions on Iran and an off-and-on bombing campaign since the war began more than six months ago has not bowed the Iranian leadership and has left the administration struggling to find a way to wind down the conflict. Tehran has dug in its heels — to Trump’s frustration — as energy prices rise, the global economy roils and poll numbers on the administration’s handling of the war dip ahead of November’s midterm congressional elections.

Trump said Wednesday that he didn’t think the conflict would last “much longer,” but he again shrugged off suggestions that its unpopularity and high gasoline prices resulting from Iran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz would affect the elections for Republicans.

“It doesn’t matter. And I’m not affected by the election,” he told reporters. “I’m not running. But my party is running, and I’m going to help my party. But I think my party respects the fact that we’re not allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon.”

A regional diplomat briefed on the matter described the current impasse between Tehran and Washington as reflective of both countries’ domestic priorities: the midterm elections for Trump and Republicans and the internal crises within Iran.

Domestic issues are critical reasons why neither side is willing to blink first, said the diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations.

The diplomat said negotiations, including those between Iran and Oman or even Iran and the US, will not go anywhere without addressing the initial catalyst of war: Israel. And the diplomat was sceptical of the Trump administration’s new sanctions plan, saying the threats require more explanation than what the US has provided so far.

The Trump administration’s economic isolation of Iran is off to a slow start

The administration’s new push for Iran’s economic isolation was announced with great fanfare last week and a dire warning for all remaining countries to cut off financial and trade ties with Iran or face US retaliation — but the campaign so far has fallen flat.

Just one branch of an Egyptian bank in the United Arab Emirates has been targeted so far. For actual sanctions to bite, experts agree that they must apply to Iran’s main trading partners: mainly China but also India and Russia. But Trump is loath to target China, especially as he is preparing to host President Xi Jinping later this month.

Trump also insists that the US has control over the Strait of Hormuz, where one-fifth of the world’s oil transits before the war began. The strategic waterway has been a key pressure point for Iran, and reopening it fully has become one of the prime goals for the US administration.

Ship traffic through the strait is well below pre-war levels due to the risk of attack if vessels don’t comply with an Iranian vetting regime near its coastline, which is in sharp contrast to the unhindered navigation before the war. There were 102 transits last week and 126 the week before, according to shipping data company Lloyd’s List Intelligence, compared with 130 or more per day before the war.

“As President Trump said, the strait is open, and all mines have been cleared,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Thursday. “The naval blockade remains in full force and effect, and Operation Economic Outcast is underway to sever every remaining economic lifeline sustaining the regime.”

The White House has repeatedly touted the economic impact that the sanctions have had on Iran, citing its rampant inflation and the massive loss in the value of its currency. US officials have described Iran’s financial system as “one big house of cards.”

Going forward, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said “the price” Iran will pay will be primarily economic, “but we reserve the right … to take military action when necessary — not just to protect ourselves but to prevent them from being able to threaten others as well.”

“They’re going to continue to feel the squeeze,” he told Fox News host Brian Kilmeade in an interview that aired Wednesday.

Vice President JD Vance said Thursday that he would not characterise the current situation as a “war” but that the administration would respond to any Iranian hostile action.

“Major combat operations are currently not ongoing, and they haven’t been ongoing in a very long time,” Vance told reporters during a White House briefing. “In fact, what we did just a couple of days ago is that we made it harder for the Iranians to shoot at commercial shipping again in order to ensure the flow of oil and gas into world energy markets.”

Combining military force and sanctions on Iran is the only option,’ one analyst says

Complicating things for the US, Iran’s leadership has shown signs of divisions between moderates more open to a diplomatic solution and hardliners who want to press ahead with a more confrontational approach.

President Masoud Pezeshkian is one of the most prominent voices still calling for a negotiated solution. But the hardliners appear to have gained the upper hand, and Iran shows no sign of backing down. Tehran continues to lash out at US interests and allies around the region in response to military strikes.

“This kind of a hybrid approach — the combination of military force, blockade and economic pressure — is the only option that seems to be available to the United States at this moment,” said Hamidreza Azizi, senior Iran analyst for the International Crisis Group.

Still, he said, “it’s been for a long time, but now maybe more than ever, a battle of endurance between the two sides.”

Amr Hamzawy, director of the Middle East program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, pointed to two main reasons for the deteriorating situation.

“One, none of the two parties is satisfied with the outcome — meaning that the current situation does not serve US interests well, and it does not serve Iranian interests well,” Hamzawy said.

The other reason is how leaders from both sides are perceived at home.

“The Trump administration is afraid of being portrayed in the US as an administration that failed to end a military campaign successfully, and that’s going to impact the midterm elections,” he said. “And the Iranians, especially the Revolutionary Guard, are quite afraid of appearing as if they are submitting to US sanctions with no actions on their side, which might hurt them domestically.”

The death toll due to devastating flash floods in Nepal surged to 1,259 on Thursday, with over 5,000 still missing as families perform symbolic funeral rites for their relatives after receiving no information about them for days.

The flash floods, triggered by an ice-rock avalanche near the Nepal-Tibet border on August 26, devastated towns and villages in northern and central Nepal, leaving a trail of destruction.

According to the data released by Nepal’s National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority(NDRRMA), the death toll from the Bhotekoshi River floods surged to 1,259 on Thursday, with 5,083 still missing.

In Paharebesi village of Rasuwa district, residents have begun preparing to perform funeral rites for missing relatives after receiving no information about their whereabouts for eight days, Onlinekhabar news portal reported on Thursday.

In flood-hit areas, families have begun using effigies made of kusha grass to perform the final rites of relatives who remain untraced, amid diminishing hopes of finding them alive, The Kathmandu Post newspaper reported.

Families said they were turning to symbolic funerals because there was little hope of recovering all the missing and because identifying bodies had become increasingly difficult, it said.

According to NDRRMA, 355 bodies have been recovered from Chitawan district, 218 from Nawalparasi East, 212 from Nawalparasi West, including 18 recovered from India and handed over to Nawalparasi West, and 177 from Nuwakot. Similarly, 127 bodies were recovered from Rasuwa district, 72 from Gorkha, 60 from Dhading and 38 from Tahanu.

On the Chinese side, the death toll in the flash flood that struck Gyirong county in Tibet near the Nepal border has increased to 21, with 541 others still missing as of Wednesday.

As the upstream areas of the Bhotekoshi River are continuously receiving rainfall on Thursday, there is the possibility of rising water levels in the Bhotekoshi and Trishuli rivers as well as small rivers and rivulets flowing through Rasuwa and Nuwakot districts, said Saraswati Bishta, a technician at the Flood Forecasting Division of the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology.

The people residing in the surrounding areas and downstream of the river are urged to remain vigilant, she said.

There is a middle-level risk associated with flash floods in rivers situated in various districts, mainly those in the hilly region, including Taplejung, Panchthar, Terhathum, Dhankuta, Sankhuwasabha, Okhaldhunga, Udaypur, Chitwan, Gorkha, Tanahu, Lamjung, Manang, Mustang, Myagdi, Kaski, Syangja, Kathmandu, Lalitpur and Bhaktapur, she said.

Similarly, rivers situated in mountain regions including Kalikot, Humla, Jumla, Dailekh, Darchula, Baitadi and Kalikot districts are also swelling, resulting in some risks associated to flash floods, she added.

Meanwhile, Nepal Foreign Minister Shisir Khanal on Thursday called the massive floods that caused widespread devastation in the country a “Himalayan Tsunami” and thanked neighbouring countries and the international community for their support and solidarity during this difficult period.

Khanal’s comments came days after an interview with a private television channel, in which he identified China, the US, and India as the world’s three largest greenhouse gas emitters and said they have a “historical responsibility to compensate vulnerable nations like Nepal”.

Expressing gratitude to neighbour countries, friendly nations and the international community for their support and solidarity, Khanal said on Thursday that “Nepal will continue close cooperation and collaboration with the international community in this regard.”

Even as international and domestic assistance continues to pour in, schoolchildren in Nepal are doing their bit by donating part of their pocket money to the Prime Minister’s Relief Fund.

Children from various schools across Nepal are voluntarily donating their snack money or pocket money for the welfare of those affected by the floods.

Meanwhile, the joint rescue teams led by the Nepal Army have continued their search and rescue efforts on the ninth day, on Thursday.

The floods have changed the landscape of the valleys of Rasuwa and Nuwakot, with helicopter pilots relying on their own discipline and judgement to navigate the steep terrain because riverbanks and familiar landmarks have disappeared, the Kathmandu Post newspaper reported.

The tunnel rescue team from India is working with the Nepali army to carry out the rescue operation in Chilime Power House.

Indian envoy on Thursday visited Syabrubesi, the base of the Indian tunnel rescue team, and said that even though the conditions are tough, both Indian and Nepali teams will continue their work ‘undeterred.’

The envoy said that Indian and Nepali teams have already explored 100 metres inside the tunnel using special equipment. “They plan to bring in heavy equipment to further advance into the tunnel,” he said.

Meanwhile, China has rescued 114 Nepalese nationals who were stranded in Tibet after the August 26 flash flood in Rasuwa, and arranged their safe exit to Nepal through the Tatopani border, according to a statement issued by the Home Ministry on Thursday.

They will be transported to Kathmandu and then to their respective destinations by the Nepalese authorities.

According to the Home Ministry, 2,500 Nepalis have already returned to Nepal from Tibet while 1,400 are still waiting for repatriation.

In a related development, a senior Chinese climate official has warned that Glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau are likely to become more unstable, which may lead to more collapses and collateral disasters similar to last week’s deadly flash flood at the Tibet-Nepal border.

“Over the past 60 years, the glacier area on the Tibetan Plateau has shrunk by around 24 per cent, with around 7,000 small glaciers disappearing completely,” said Gao Rong, deputy director of China’s National Climate Centre, an official body of the Chinese government.

“Looking ahead, the structural stability of glaciers across the Tibetan Plateau will decline further. Glacial disasters are likely to become more frequent and could amplify in destruction and reach through cascading effects,” Gao was quoted as saying by the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post.