New York, Mar 03: Oil prices are leaping Monday with worries that war in the Middle East will clog the global flow of crude and make inflation even worse. US stocks, meanwhile, are swinging between sharp losses and a tiny gain.
Crude prices jumped more than 5%, which will likely mean higher prices soon at gasoline pumps. That would hurt not only US households, whose spending makes up the bulk of the US economy, but also businesses with big fuel bills.
The S&P 500 fell as much as 1.2% at the start of trading, and cruise lines and airlines led the way lower. But the index quickly erased the loss, in part because past military conflicts have not led to sustained drops for markets, and it was back to virtually unchanged in midday trading.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 75 points, or 0.2%, as of noon Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.3% higher.
Prices for natural gas remained higher, meanwhile, which could raise heating bills for the remainder of the winter, after a major supplier of liquefied natural gas to Europe said it would stop production because of the war.
Gold climbed 1.3% as investors looked for safer things to own and as US officials tried to persuade the world that this war will not last forever.
“This is not Iraq,” US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said Monday. “This is not endless.”
Typically, Treasury yields also fall when investors are feeling nervous. But yields instead climbed, in part because higher oil prices will put upward pressure on inflation, which is already worse than nearly everyone would like. That could tie the Federal Reserve’s hands and keep it from cutting interest rates.
Lower interest rates can boost the economy and job market, while also worsening inflation. Higher rates can do the opposite.
Past military conflicts in the Middle East have not caused long-term drops for markets. For this war to knock down US stocks in a significant and sustained way, the price of oil would perhaps need to jump above $100 per barrel, according to strategists at Morgan Stanley led by Michael Wilson.
Oil prices are still well below there. A barrel of benchmark US crude rose 5.7% to $70.86. Brent crude, the international standard, climbed 6.2% to $77.36 per barrel.
That helped the US stock market pare some of its steep, opening loss. Morgan Stanley says the S&P 500 has climbed an average of 2%, 6% and 8% in the one, six and 12 months following “geopolitical risk events” historically.
That’s going back to the Korean War, which began in 1950, and the 1956 Suez crisis.
At the moment, though, fear is still running through markets.
Stocks of airlines were some of Monday’s sharpest losers. Not only do higher oil prices threaten their already big fuel bills, the fighting in the Middle East also closed airports and left travellers stranded.
United Airlines fell 3.9%, and American Airlines lost 4.3%.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings fell even more, 10.8%. It needs customers to have plenty of cash to spend after paying for their gasoline bills and other essentials.
The cruise operator also reported weaker revenue for its latest quarter than analysts expected, though its profit was better. Its forecast for profit this upcoming fiscal year was lower than analysts expected.
Hotels, discount retailers and other companies that benefit when customers have more cash in their pocket from lower fuel bills also lagged the market. MGM Resorts fell 4%, and Dollar Tree lost 2.9%.
Stocks in the housing industry also struggled as higher Treasury yields could translate into more expensive mortgage rates. Paint company Sherwin-Williams fell 2.7%, and homebuilder D R Horton lost 3.8%.
Helping to limit Wall Street’s losses were oil companies, which benefited from the rising prices for crude. Exxon Mobil climbed 1.4%, and Occidental Petroleum rose 1.9%.
Companies that make equipment for the military also strengthened. Lockheed Martin climbed 2.2%, and RTX rallied 4.6%.
Palantir Technologies, whose software helps global defense agencies, jumped 6.3% for the biggest gain in the S&P 500.
Big Tech stocks also helped to support the market. Nvidia rose 3% and was the strongest single force pushing upward on the S&P 500.
In stock markets abroad, indexes fell across much of Europe and Asia. Germany’s DAX lost 2.6%, France’s CAC 40 fell 2.2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 2.1% for some of the world’s larger losses.
Stocks in Shanghai were an outlier and rose 0.5%.
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.04% from 3.97% late Friday. A report showing growth for US manufacturing was better than economists expected last month also helped to lift yields.
