Kolkata, May 04: Signalling a potential political churn in West Bengal, a state long dominated by TMC’s Mamata Banerjee, the BJP surged past the halfway mark on Monday, leading in 185 assembly seats against the TMC’s 91 as counting progressed steadily, according to the Election Commission data.
With the majority mark of 148 in the 294-member House breached in early trends, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s momentum pointed to a possible breakthrough, while the ruling Trinamool Congress scrambled to close the widening gap in what has emerged as a potentially game-changing electoral battle.
The early numbers, indicating a possible outcome that could reshape the state’s political landscape following a fiercely fought elections, also suggested a geographically split mandate, with the BJP pushing ahead in border, tribal and industrial regions, while the TMC held ground in parts of Kolkata and select rural strongholds.
Counting for 293 Assembly seats began at 8 am with postal ballots, followed by EVM votes.
The Election Commission has countermanded polls in the entire Falta constituency in South 24 Parganas district, citing “severe electoral offences and subversion of the democratic process during polling in a large number of polling stations”.
The election is widely seen as a referendum on Banerjee’s bid for a fourth consecutive term against an aggressive BJP that has sought to convert its 2021 gains into a decisive breakthrough.
Even as the broader trend favoured the BJP, Banerjee was ahead in her Bhabanipur stronghold by 16,706 votes over BJP challenger Suvendu Adhikari after five rounds of counting, offering early comfort to the TMC in a prestige seat.
The Bhabanipur contest witnessed sharp swings through the morning, with Banerjee leading in the first round, trailing in the second, and regaining the advantage in the third — underlining the volatility of early trends.
However, in Nandigram, the other marquee battleground, Adhikari was ahead by over 3,135 votes against TMC’s Pabitra Kar after two rounds of counting.
Beyond the headline numbers, the trends indicated a deeper churn in the state’s political landscape.
For a party that has known uninterrupted power since 2011, the current numbers — with the BJP surging ahead in over 174 seats and the TMC trailing well behind — suggest the possible unravelling of a carefully constructed political machine that thrived on centralised authority, welfare outreach and relentless booth-level mobilisation.
The scale of the shift is reflected in emerging vote share patterns, with the BJP’s share rising to around 44.8 per cent — a sharp jump from 2021 — while the TMC’s dipped to nearly 41.7 per cent, indicating erosion across segments that once formed its dependable base.
Perhaps more telling is the churn in the 177 constituencies where voter deletions had exceeded previous victory margins — a silent faultline that appears to have turned electoral.
The BJP was holding ground in all the seats it had won in this category in 2021 and making inroads into several of the 120 segments that the TMC had previously dominated, pointing to a deeper, more systemic shift rather than a transient swing.
Initial trends from across the state showed several TMC heavyweights trailing, triggering concern within the ruling camp.
In Cooch Behar district’s Dinhata, minister Udayan Guha was trailing by 6,259 votes against BJP’s Ajay Ray after four of the 24 rounds of counting.
TMC’s Manas Ranjan Bhunia was trailing in Paschim Medinipur district’s Sabang constituency, where he has won seven elections earlier, with BJP’s Amal Kumar Panda ahead by 693 votes after the third round.
In Kolkata, BJP’s Purnima Chakraborty was leading by 1,430 votes over TMC minister Shashi Panja, signalling early cracks in some urban pockets for the ruling party.
In Monteswar, BJP’s Saikat Panja was ahead by 13,308 votes over TMC’s Siddiqullah Chowdhury, while in Asansol Dakshin, BJP leader Agnimitra Paul was leading by 18,812 votes.
West Bengal Assembly Speaker Biman Banerjee was trailing by 1,448 votes in Baruipur Paschim constituency.
The BJP was also leading in a swath of constituencies, including Dinhata, Gosaba, Baghmundi, Bankura, Durgapur Purba, Binpur, Nayagram, Rajganj and Bhagwangola, indicating traction across Junglemahal, north Bengal and industrial belts.
In contrast, the TMC retained leads in pockets such as Deganga, besides urban seats like Kasba, Ballygunge, Bhabanipur and Entally, and rural belts including Singur, Raina, Jamalpur, Khandaghosh, Sitai, Malatipur and Mothabari.
The CPI(M) was leading in Domkal in Murshidabad district, while the ISF was ahead in Minakhan in South 24 Parganas. Aam Janata Unnayan Party chief Humayun Kabir was leading in Nowda in Murshidabad over his nearest TMC rival after the first round, with a margin of 2,890 votes and several rounds remaining.
Officials cautioned that trends could shift significantly as more rounds are counted, with clearer patterns expected only later in the day.
