Hong Kong, Mar 18: About 90 ships including oil tankers have crossed the Strait of Hormuz since the outset of the war with Iran and it is still exporting millions of barrels of oil at a time when the waterway has been effectively closed, according to maritime and trade data platforms.

Many of the vessels that passed through the strait were so-called “dark” transits evading Western government sanctions and oversight that likely have ties to Iran, maritime data firm Lloyd’s List Intelligence said.

More recently, vessels with ties to India and Pakistan have also successfully crossed the strait as governments stepped up negotiations.

As crude prices spiked above USD 100 a barrel, US President Donald Trump pressured allies and trade partners to send warships and reopen the strait, hoping to bring oil prices lower.

Most shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway for global oil and gas transport that supplies roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude oil, has been halted since early March, after the war started. About 20 vessels have been attacked in the area.

However, Iran has still managed to export well above 16 million barrels of oil since the beginning of March, trade data and analytics platform Kpler estimated. Due to Western sanctions and associated risks, China has been the biggest buyer of Iranian oil.

There has been ”continued resilience” in Iran’s oil export volumes, said Kpler trade risk analyst Ana Subasic.

Iran has managed to profit from oil sales and also “preserve its own export artery” by using control over the chokepoint, said Kun Cao, client director at consulting firm Reddal.

Iran’s oil export data estimates are largely aligned with maritime traffic data.

At least 89 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz between March 1 and 15 – including 16 oil tankers, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, down from roughly 100 to 135 vessel passages per day before the war.

More than one-fifth of the 89 vessels were believed to be Iran-affiliated, while Chinese and Greece affiliated ships are among the rest, it said.

Other vessels also have been getting through.

The Pakistan-flagged crude oil tanker Karachi, controlled by the Pakistan National Shipping Corp., passed through the strait on Sunday, Lloyd’s List Intelligence said.

Shariq Amin, a spokesman at the Pakistan Port Trust, refused to confirm or deny which route the MT Karachi had used but he said the ship would soon safely reach Pakistan.

The India-flagged liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers Shivalik and Nanda Devi, both owned by state-owned Shipping Corp. of India, also travelled through the strait around March 13 or 14, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence. LPG is used as a primary cooking fuel by millions of Indian households.

India’s foreign minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, told the Financial Times the two vessels’ were able to pass following talks with Iran. Iraq was also in talks with Iran to allow Iraqi oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, its state-run news agency reported.

Vessels may be transiting “with at least some level of diplomatic intervention,” said Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List. So, Iran may have “effectively created a safe corridor” with some ships passing close to the Iranian coast.

Some vessels near or in the strait were found to have declared themselves as China-linked or with all Chinese crew to reduce risks of being attacked, based on an earlier analysis on ship tracking platform MarineTraffic. Analysts believe they were taking advantage of China’s closer ties with Iran.

Oil prices have jumped more than 40 per cent to above USD 100 per barrel since the Iran war began, and Iran has threatened it won’t allow “even a single litre of oil” destined for the US, and Israel and their allies to pass through.

To try to stabilise oil prices, the US said it was allowing Iranian oil tankers to cross the strait. “The Iranian ships have been getting out already, and we’ve let that happen to supply the rest of the world,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with CNBC on Monday.

The US bombed military sites on Kharg Island off the Iranian coast, which is key for Iran’s oil network and exports, but President Donald Trump said he had left its oil infrastructure alone for now.

The latest passages through the Strait of Hormuz show the strait was not simply “closed,” Cao said. “It is better understood as closed selectively against some traffic, while still functioning for Iranian exports and a narrow set of tolerated non-Iranian movements,” he said.

However, if Iran’s plan is to “inflict pain through higher energy prices, the number of tankers it allows through the Strait of Hormuz may be very limited,” Dutch bank ING’s strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a research note.

Washington, Mar 18: China won’t help the United States reopen the Strait of Hormuz as requested by President Donald Trump, but it is probably welcoming the delay in Trump’s highly anticipated trip to Beijing as the US risks getting bogged down in the Middle East, analysts say.

The latest developments are unfolding as Trump’s Iran war, in its third week, is faced with mounting pressure as oil has stopped moving through the strait and US allies have refused to step up to secure the strait.

That has produced concerns that China, the United States’ biggest geopolitical rival, could stand to benefit from a war that some say was ill-considered.

“President Trump’s request to delay his long-awaited summit with President Xi Jinping underscores how significantly he underestimated the fallout from Operation Epic Fury,” said Ali Wyne, senior research and advocacy adviser for US-China relations at the International Crisis Group.

“A show of US force that was meant to intimidate Beijing has instead served to puncture the illusion of US omnipotence: Unable to reopen the Strait of Hormuz alone, Washington now needs its principal strategic competitor to help it manage a crisis of its own making.”

The Chinese Foreign Ministry gave a nonanswer when asked if it would help reopen the strait but repeated its call for “parties to immediately stop military operations, avoid further escalation of the tense situation and prevent regional turmoil from further impacting the global economy.”

Beijing, which had never officially confirmed Trump’s state visit, originally scheduled for March 31, has signalled willingness to work with the US to reschedule the visit by stating that the two sides “remain in communication.”

It even helped clarify that the postponement had nothing to do with Trump’s request for China to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

On Tuesday, Trump said the Chinese “were fine” with the delay and claimed “a very good working relationship with China.”

Sun Yun, director of the China programme at the Stimson Centre, said, “I think the Iran request is now going to be less pressing for China to fulfil.” At the same time, Chinese diplomats have been engaging with countries in the Middle East, pledging a constructive role in easing tensions and restoring peace.

On Sunday, through the Red Cross and the Red Crescent, Beijing delivered to Iran an emergency humanitarian aid package of USD 200,000, earmarked for families of children and teachers killed in the bombing of the Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school building in Minab, Iran, with the Chinese ambassador to Iran condemning the school attack.

State visit delayed

A delay in the state visit is welcome by both the Trump administration and China, said Brett Fetterly, a managing principal in the China practice at The Asia Group, a Washington-based consultancy.

“I think the political environment is difficult for the United States to have the commander in chief travel abroad while managing military operations,” Fetterly said. “On the Chinese side, it doesn’t hurt to play for more time, to better understand what exactly President Trump might want.”

A recent trade talk in Paris between the two governments appears to have yielded little agreement and suggested difficulties remain in addressing structural differences in trade, technology and economic security, Fetterly said.

“At the end of the day, both sides really needed some time to define what the range of deliverables are,” he said.

The US business community has also expressed concern that preparations for the summit might not have been sufficient to produce substantive agreements.

Pivot away from Asia

Transfers of military assets from the Indo-Pacific region to the Middle East, including a sizable portion of Marines deployed there as part of a rapid-response unit and an anti-missile defence system, have raised concerns that the US could get distracted from its own stated priority to refocus on Asia.

“The longer this war continues, and the more forces that are shifted out of Asia, the more it will feed Asian allies’ concerns about US distraction and resource constraints,” said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he studies US strategy in Asia.

A delay in the state visit could also mean a delay in any arms sales to the self-governing island of Taiwan to deter attacks from Beijing, he said.

China has vowed to take Taiwan by force if necessary, but the United States is obligated by its own law to give the island sufficient hardware to defend itself. The issue remains the thorniest in US-China relations.

“I believe that China is happy to delay the visit and reap the benefits as the United States once again gets bogged down in the Middle East,” Cooper said.

And Beijing probably doesn’t need to do much, he added: “I think most Chinese experts and officials believe that the United States is undermining itself, so they just need to get out of the way.”

Dubai, Mar 18: Israel killed two senior Iranian security officials in a major blow to the Islamic Republic’s leadership as it faces its greatest test in decades, and Iran responded Wednesday with renewed missile and drone attacks on its Gulf Arab neighbors and Israel.

Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, was considered one of the most powerful figures in the country since Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an airstrike on the first day of the war. Gen. Gholam Reza Soleimani was the head of the Revolutionary Guard’s all-volunteer Basij.

Iran confirmed the killings of both men, who were key to Iran’s violent crackdown on protests in January that challenged the theocracy’s 47-year rule.

Iran launched a barrage of missiles toward Israel on Wednesday as sirens sounded across the central part of the country and loud explosions were heard in Tel Aviv. Israel’s medical service, Magen David Adom, said two people were killed in Ramat Gan, a district east of Tel Aviv.

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other Arab states also faced barrages of Iranian-fired missiles and drones Wednesday that were intercepted by air defense systems.

With concerns growing about a global energy crisis, an Iranian official said Tehran had no intention of relinquishing its tight grip on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for oil.

President Donald Trump said NATO and most other allies have rejected his calls to help secure the strait.

Israel says killings are to undermine Iranian regime

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Tuesday that Larijani and Soleimani “were eliminated” in strikes overnight. The Israeli military said it also struck more than 10 Basij posts across Tehran.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the killings were aimed at “undermining this regime to give the Iranian people the opportunity to remove it.” But there have been no signs of anti-government protests since the war began, as many Iranians shelter from the American and Israeli strikes.

The Iranian judiciary’s news agency, Mizan, quoted the Revolutionary Guard as confirming the killing of Soleimani. Other Iranian state media confirmed Larijani’s death.

Larijani, a former parliamentary speaker, was a senior policy adviser to the late Khamenei on strategy in nuclear talks with the Trump administration. He was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury in January for his role “coordinating” Iran’s violent suppression of nationwide protests.

Soleimani was also sanctioned by the U.S., the European Union and other nations, over his role in suppressing dissent for years through the Basij.

The killings of the top officials came on the eve of “Chaharshanbe Souri,” or the Festival of Fire, shortly before the Persian new year. Authorities have sent threatening text messages telling the public not to turn out for the festival, warning the celebrations could be used by “rioters.”

Iranian strikes pressure neighbors and oil markets

In the United Arab Emirates, explosions rang out early Wednesday morning in Dubai, followed by a missile alert. The government’s Dubai Media Office said “the sounds heard across parts of the city” were the successful interceptions by air defense operations.

Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil is transported, is sparking concerns about tightening energy supplies — unnerving the world economy.

A few ships have crossed through the strait, and Iran has said the waterway technically remains open — just not for the United States, Israel and their allies. About 20 vessels have been struck.

U.S. Central Command said Tuesday the U.S. military has fired multiple 5,000-pound deep penetrator bombs on Iranian missile sites along Iran’s coastline near the Strait of Hormuz that were posing a risk to international shipping.

With oil prices rising, Trump has demanded that roughly a half-dozen countries send warships to ensure ships can pass through the strait but said he has not gotten any support.

The European Union’s top diplomat said the 27-nation bloc does not want to be dragged into the conflict with Iran. “This is not Europe’s war,” Kaja Kallas told EU lawmakers Tuesday. “We were not consulted.”

Meanwhile, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Wednesday it received a report from Iran that its Bushehr nuclear power plant complex had been hit by a projectile but there were no injuries and the plant suffered no damage. It reiterated the call by IAEA’s leader, Rafael Mariano Grossi, “for maximum restraint during the conflict to prevent risk of a nuclear accident.”

Renewed Israeli strikes in Lebanon

The Israeli military continued its strikes on Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.

A strike in the Nabatiyeh district killed three people and wounded another, Lebanon’s health ministry said Wednesday. Rescue teams were searching for eight missing people, it said.

Israel’s strikes have displaced more than 1 million Lebanese — roughly 20% of the population — according to the Lebanese government, which says 912 people have been killed. In Israel, 14 people have been killed by Iranian missile fire. At least 13 U.S. military members have been killed.

More than 1,300 people have been killed in Iran since the conflict started Feb. 28, according to the Iranian Red Crescent.