Srinagar, Aug 9: Not every localised extreme weather event in Jammu and Kashmir is a cloudburst, experts said, cautioning against attributing every flash flood to the phenomenon.
More than 35 cloudbursts and several high-intensity rainfall events have been reported across J&K this year.
Experts, however, said the frequency of cloudbursts could not be established without detailed studies.
“The reported increase in the number of cloudbursts is incorrect without detailed studies. We can say that the number of flash-flood events in J&K and Ladakh due to extreme weather activity has increased over the years,” climatologist Sonam Lotus said.
Lotus said most flash floods followed brief, intense downpours.
“The majority of the flash floods occurred due to heavy downpour, which has a very short life of a maximum of 15 minutes,” he said. “This is reflected in weather datasets as 15pl0Min precipitation or rainfall, which means the amount of rain recorded in 15 minutes.”
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), rainfall of more than 100 mm in one hour over a small, localised area qualifies as a cloudburst.
The definition does not specify a fixed radius.
Riyaz Ahmad Mir, a hydrogeologist at the National Institute of Hydrology, Jammu, said lower rainfall could also cause flooding in steep terrain.
“Rainfall of 20-30 mm in one hour can cause localized flooding in very small and steep catchments, while 30-50 mm in one hour may trigger flash floods in vulnerable mountain catchments,” Mir said.
He said 50-100 mm over one to three hours could also generate flash floods in steep Himalayan valleys.
“A cloudburst should be identified only when rainfall intensity meets the established threshold and observations support it,” Mir said.
Independent weather forecaster FaizanArif said rainfall below the cloudburst threshold could also trigger flash floods.
“Even lower amounts of intense rainfall over a short period can trigger flash floods in mountainous terrain,” Arif said.
“Several incidents during the wet spells appear to be linked to intense localized rainfall rather than cloudbursts,” he said. “Though multiple cloud bursts were also reported.”
Meteorological Department Director Mukhtar Ahmad attributed the recent pattern to monsoon currents interacting with mostly feeble Western Disturbances.
“As the monsoon advances, such events – cloudbursts and heavy downpours-become more frequent, especially in mountainous districts,” Ahmad said.
He said rainfall remained uneven, with intense showers confined mostly to small pockets, while several areas, particularly the plains, continued to face deficits.
“For every one-degree Celsius rise in temperature, the atmosphere can hold nearly 7 percent more moisture. This increases the possibility of intense rainfall over a short period,” Ahmad said.
He said pinpointing such events remained difficult despite improved weather monitoring.
“Forecasting has improved with Doppler radars, satellite observations and automated weather stations, but pinpointing a cloudburst or downpour remains difficult as these systems develop over very small areas,” Ahmad said.
The latest weather activity follows a severe run of extreme weather across J&K from April to September 2025, including cloudbursts, flash floods, landslides, mudslides, rockfalls, shooting stones, hailstorms and gusty winds.
Ministry of Home Affairs figures shared in the RajyaSabha show that floods and heavy rainfall killed 199 people in J&K last year.
They also killed 11,693 livestock, damaged 8404 houses and affected 77,915 hectares of farmland.
The deadliest incident was the August 14, 2025, cloudburst at Chisoti village along the Machail Mata Yatra route in Gulabgarh-Paddar, Kishtwar.
Nearly 70 people died and several others, mostly yatris, went missing in flash floods.
Landslides and shooting stones kept the Srinagar-Jammu National Highway closed for more than 50 days in separate spells, stranding apple-laden trucks and causing losses to growers and traders.
Flash floods and landslides have battered J&K this year too.
Rajouri, Poonch, Reasi, Kathua, Samba, Doda, Kishtwar, and Ramban districts have remained most affected while incidents have also been reported in the upper belt of north, central, and south Kashmir, resulting in over 30 deaths so far.
On July 19, flash floods and landslides in Poonch and Rajouri left more than 25 people dead.
This year also, multiple hailstorms, gusty winds, and intense rain damaged orchards, affecting blossoms and young fruit during key growth stages.
