Washington, Aug 04: US President Donald Trump has played this hand before during the five-month-old Iran war — but this time, he insists it is different.
The president on Monday said that new talks between Washington and Tehran are the “last chance” for Iran to forge a deal and avoid an escalation of US strikes on the country.
Trump, speaking at the Oval Office, said he expects negotiations will focus on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and create a pathway for Iran to address the United States’ concerns about its nuclear programme. He told reporters they would likely learn about the status of the negotiations “today or tomorrow”.
“The first phase is the opening of the straits. The second phase will be the denuclearisation,” the Republican president said. “And that will take a little while.”
While Trump has revelled in the US military decimating layers of Tehran’s leadership and devastating its air force and navy, Iran is betting it can outlast Trump as he faces diminished stockpiles of munitions and the difficulty of executing a war that is unpopular with the American electorate ahead of November’s midterm election.
Trump said he decided to hold off on ordering American forces to carry out new massive strikes against Iran at the urging of Gulf allies Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
He said a plan was in place for US forces to carry out “the biggest attack since World War II” on Sunday. But he decided to scrap the plan and give diplomacy more time to play out after hearing from key Gulf leaders — including Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman — as well as at the request of unnamed Iranian officials.
But Trump reiterated that he is running out of patience with Iran.
“This is the last chance for them to sign a good document,” Trump said.
Earlier on Monday, Trump had criticised Iran on social media as being “unbelievably duplicitous”.
His ire was raised by Iran claiming that its meetings with Oman on Monday were focussed solely on establishing a temporary route for safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for the global oil trade.
“They ask for a meeting, some would say beg, talks begin, with more scheduled in the immediate future, and they say, openly and proudly, that they are not having any discussions, that nothing is being talked about, and they are only dealing with Oman,” Trump grumbled.
Trump said whether “Iran wants to admit it or not, we are, in fact, talking” about preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
Trump has threatened to escalate attacks on Iran only to edge away from his threats several times since the start of US and Israel strikes on February 28.
Asked by a reporter how Americans view him repeatedly making grim threats on Tehran before backing away, Trump responded that he is showing patience out of a consideration for Iranian life.
“I want to give them every last chance before decapitation,” Trump said. He added, “Hopefully, they will come to their senses.”
Critics see Trump reaching for a reset button as a pattern
Trump may still come to the conclusion that a massive escalation in the conflict with Iran is necessary.
But critics say his hesitation also might reflect an unspoken understanding inside the administration that US military might alone may not be enough to compel Iran to back down and bring an end to a now monthslong war that Trump had earlier downplayed as a weekslong excursion.
“I think what we are seeing here is a president who has an approach that is just rather erratic,” said Sen. Mark Kelly, an Arizona Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, on CBS News’ “Face the Nation”. “At this point, he is trying to get us back to February. And I think if he could — if he had a big reset button he could hit — he would certainly take that option.”
There have been several moments over the course of the conflict when Trump has demonstrated his proclivity for the bellicose only to back off at the last minute, while declaring his threats spurred progress:
— In early April, the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in an announcement that came less than two hours before a deadline Trump had set for Tehran to capitulate or face attacks on bridges and power plants — strikes he said would mean “a whole civilisation will die”.
— After days of dire threats against Iran, Trump announced on May 18 he was holding off on a major planned military strike because “serious negotiations” were underway, crediting Gulf allies for persuading him to show restraint.
— Then in June, Trump threatened on social media to hit Iran “VERY HARD” and seize Iran’s energy base on Kharg Island to “assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets”, only to call off the strikes in another post after claiming that peace negotiations had progressed with high-level Iranian leaders.
Call with Saudi crown prince affected Trump’s decision
With this latest episode, Trump suggested that the Saudi crown prince played a particularly important role in him turning away from escalating the fight.
The US president spoke by phone with the de-facto leader of the kingdom on Saturday before announcing he was halting planned strikes.
The crown prince conveyed that an escalation in fighting could have a severe impact on the global economy if Tehran responded to a new US bombardment by targeting some of the United States’ Gulf allies, according to a person briefed on the call who was not authorised to comment publicly and insisted on anonymity.
Saudi officials, the person added, have underscored in their engagements with the Trump administration that the kingdom is in a good position to defend itself against further potential Iranian strikes — as are fellow energy titans Qatar and the UAE — but that Kuwait could be more vulnerable to attacks by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq.
As Trump threatens escalation, Republicans face tough polling
Trump has insisted that November’s midterm elections are not shaping his approach to the conflict, which has spurred unease across the global economy.
But it is certainly on the minds of his fellow Republicans.
About two-thirds of US adults say the war with Iran has not been worthwhile, according to polling from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research published last week. That includes the vast majority of Democrats and independents, as well as about 37 per cent of Republicans.
One of Trump’s most outspoken allies on Capitol Hill suggested on Sunday the administration needs to modulate its approach on Iran.
Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the debate in Washington has lost perspective on the devastation the US military has inflicted on Iran since the start of the war.
Still, the Republican lawmaker acknowledged that further escalating the conflict could lead to another surge in already-elevated energy prices and “a lot of inflation for the American people”.
Kennedy made the case that tightening sanctions and targeting Iran’s nuclear programme — rather than escalating the conflict — might be the best bet for the moment.
“They are all hellish choices,” Kennedy said. “But for the moment, I would maintain the status quo.”
