Dubai, Jun 17: Iran will immediately take steps to reopen the Strait of Hormuz once a tentative deal with the US to end the war is signed and will be allowed to sell its oil without restrictions, according to leaked copies of an interim agreement that officials say broadly matches the document.
The accord, due to be signed in Switzerland on Friday, also envisions Iran receiving at least USD 300 billion to rebuild after the war and says the US would work to end all American and United Nations sanctions imposed on Tehran — if a final agreement addressing Iran’s nuclear program is reached.
The US and Israel went to war on Feb. 28 in part to prevent Iran from ever getting a nuclear weapon — although US President Donald Trump’s goals in the conflict have repeatedly shifted. The interim deal stops the war before that aim is secured — instead opening a two-month period for nuclear negotiations — and appears to offer Iran several benefits up front while extracting little in return.
The US agreement to immediately allow Iran to sell its oil freely and the offer to eventually lift all sanctions, for instance, represent major concessions that outstrip the terms of Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers that Trump withdrew America from in his first term, declaring it the “worst deal ever.”
The accord likely will draw intense criticism in Washington — and appears to be a major setback for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is coming under intense criticism at home as the details emerge.
The deal will stop the fighting and start more negotiations
Much of the agreement would restore the status quo before the war, including ending hostilities, restarting negotiations between the US and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program, and reopening the strait, which is a crucial passage for the world’s oil and natural gas and whose closure created a historic energy crisis.
The deal includes an end to the fighting in Lebanon between Israel and the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah. That is one of the most delicate parts of the agreement because Israel has maintained it will continue to defend itself and to occupy vast swaths of Lebanon. Iran has said Israel must withdraw under the deal, although the leaked versions make no mention of withdrawal.
A person who was briefed on the memorandum of understanding after it was signed and another who viewed a copy beforehand said it largely matched the text of what was published by the Saudi-owned broadcaster Al Arabiya, which reported details of the deal Tuesday. The two people spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions.
Another two officials in the Mideast, who spoke on condition of anonymity for the same reason, also said the versions published by Al Arabiya and Bloomberg broadly matched the final agreement.
The White House and other American officials have not published the terms and did not immediately respond to questions. However, White House communications director Steven Cheung wrote online Wednesday after CNN published a leaked version of the deal that it “does not reflect the language of the actual” agreement, without elaborating.
Iran also has not published an official version of the deal. Iran’s semiofficial Tasnim news agency, close to its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, claimed Wednesday that Bloomberg’s version had missing portions, without offering a full accounting.
Trump has cited various goals for the war, including at times vowing it would end Iran’s nuclear and missile programs and its support for Hezbollah and other proxy groups in the region. He also suggested it could lead to toppling the Iranian government.
The interim deal falls short of all of these goals, but Trump hailed it Wednesday.
“Nobody knows what it is but it’s very strong,” Trump said in France, where he is attending a Group of Seven summit.
But he also opened the door to abandoning it: “It’s a memorandum of understanding and if I don’t like it, we’ll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs.”
The deal provides major concessions to Iran
Some concessions to Iran — including the full lifting of sanctions and the release of frozen assets — would happen gradually and be linked to progress in the nuclear talks, according to officials from Pakistan, a key mediator. They outlined some of the deal’s major points on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.
But in the meantime, the US will issue waivers to sanctions that allow Iran to sell oil freely. Iran’s main buyer of oil, China, is believed to have bought at below-market prices because of its willingness to ignore the sanctions.
Granting oil waivers at the start of the 60-day talks strips the US of a major point of leverage. Only at the conclusion of the overall deal in 2015 were sanctions on Iran’s oil lifted.
The interim deal also opens the door to ending all sanctions Iran faces from the US and at the UN — though it says the schedule for that will be worked out later. Still, that is far beyond the 2015 deal, which only lifted some sanctions in exchange for Iran drastically reducing its enrichment and stockpile of uranium.
The accord would also provide Iran with at least USD 300 billion to rebuild after an intense US and Israeli bombing campaign — an extraordinary figure and another major benefit for Iran. That also appears dependent on the progress of further negotiations.
US Vice President JD Vance has said Gulf Arab nations would invest that amount. Trump reiterated Wednesday that the US would not contribute and said it was up to other countries if they wanted to invest.
The deal would provide relief to the global economy
The deal provides a major win for the global economy — the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of all oil and natural gas traded once passed before the war began. Since then, Iranian attacks on shipping and the threat to vessels effectively shut the strait.
The strait’s closure drove up energy prices around the world and made many basics, including food, more expensive. Iran let out some vessels that paid tolls, something never done before in the strait, which has long has been considered an international waterway. The US later provided military support to get other tankers out, but traffic was nowhere near levels before the war.
The deal also says the US will lift a blockade imposed on Iranian ports and that the strait will return to its prewar traffic levels in 30 days, while acknowledging Iranian mines may need to be destroyed.
The deal leaves much more to be resolved in future negotiations
The interim deal sets a 60-day window, which can be extended, to negotiate over limiting Iran’s nuclear program, which has been discussed at multiple rounds of talks during Trump’s second administration without success. The US promises not to make threats of military action under the current deal after two rounds of talks were interrupted by attacks.
Iran maintains its nuclear program is peaceful, though it has enough highly enriched uranium to build multiple atomic bombs, should it choose to do so, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
In the interim deal, Iran reiterates that it will never build a nuclear weapon — a promise it also made in the 2015 nuclear accord.
